2007 was a year of records for Indian markets. We saw the highest number of 1000 marks being croseed on the Sensex. Sensex crossed six thousand marks as compared to five in 2005. Metals, capital goods and oil & gas stocks had a tear away rally giving over 100% returns. But the question now is cam we mange to give the same returns next year? Which stocks will help us give us similar smart returns? Here are some of the analyst and brokerage views on markets, sectors and stocks one can buy.
Deven Choksey of KR Choksey said, “We are entering 2008 with a lot of promises, economic fundamentals are strong and more strong are corporate fundamentals. There are good strategic plans in terms of organic and inorganic plans are in place and there is growth visibility. Rupee appreciation has made overseas assets more affordable for Indian companies. Valuations are also well placed. If Sensex sees 20% growth in FY08 then it trades at 18.5 times FY09 earnings. We had record FII inflows in FY07 and they are expected to be over USD 20 billion in 2008. There are lot of new papers coming in. IPOs worth Rs 1,75,000 crore are being planned for FY08-09 and we will see most of it coming in FY08. Thee is an increase in infrastructure spending of over USD 500 billion is being planned which is positive for the economy and will help the bull run sustain. We will also have intermediate corrections."
He further added, "Basel 2 norms are avourable for banks giving them higher valuations. Also interest rates are expected to go down next year, in the first half, which will help auto companies. Value unlocking will be seen in DLF, Reliance Communication and Reliance Industries."
Choksey is bullish on banking stocks like IDBI, SBI. In the auto sector Bajaj Auto, Maruti and Tata Motors look good.In the hydrocarbon space it likes Reliance, ONGC, GAIL. In the metal space he prefers integrated players like Tata Steel and SAIL. In the madcap space Kalyani Steel, Bharat Forge and Shreyas Shipping look good.
He further added that on the downside Sensex could go down to 18,500 levels and can see a upside of 24,500.
PN Vijay is also positive on 2008 as he feels that political considerations have taken a back seat and interest rates are seen softening which will have positive impact on many sectors. He further added that retail participation is also good and there is not much dependence on FII inflows.
Vijay is bullish on power, power equipment, construction, oil & gas, energy and capital goods sector. He like Karutri Network, Punj Lloyd, Kalpataru Power, L&T, Reliance Ind, BHEL, Sesa Goa, Gujarat NRE, Aban Offshore, Shriram Transport Finance, Eicher Motors.
Vijay Bhambwani is optimistic on the first half of the year. He is positive on capital goods and Technology space. He likes BHEL in the capital goods sector and TCS in the IT space. In the madcap space he likes Asian Paints and Pidilite.
Devang Shah Head of Institutional sales at Sushil Finance likes power, capital goods and cement stocks. He is also bullish on midcp pharma stocks. Even he is of the opinion that first half of the year will be good. Later we could see some sideways movements and consolidation. He prefers stocks like Indo Tech Transformers, Voltamp Transformers and Areva T&D.
Atul Suri is also positive on the Sensex and has a target of 22,570 and a target of 6805 on Nifty. He is bullish on themes from the education, airlines and madcap pharma space.
Dinesh Thakkar-CMD-Angel Broking said, “We expect 2008 to be another good year for the Indian stock market as it will continue to be the beneficiary of a favorable asset allocation on account of the strong quality growth being witnessed in India, which is being driven by the domestic consumption boom.”
2007 has been a landmark year for Markets which rallied to touch all time highs of 20K. The run-up in the markets was aided by unprecedented flows into the equity, with FII inflows during the year grossing $18 bn.. The liquidity flows towards India was driven by strong growth posted by the Indian corporate and high profitability of India Inc. vis-à-vis peers. This is also evident from the strong FDI and Private Equity funds that the India Inc. attracted."
"While at current valuations of 20xFY2008E and 17xFY2009E earnings, are higher than their historical levels, given fundamentals and continuous flow of funds towards Indian shores markets might don’t witness a significant downside. Overall we expect the markets to trade in the range 16-20x 1-year fwd earnings, which should provide an upside of at least 20% in line with the corporate growth expectations."
He further added, “The only near term risks to markets would stem from US slow down which in short term could hamper liquidity flows, however in the long run liquidity would continue to chase Emerging Economies, which are expected to be next power engines of global growth. Going into 2008 while we do not foresee a major decline in markets given strong fundamentals, however cheery picking approach at this juncture would be highly advisable especially for sectors like Infrastructure, Cap goods and Real estate where the prices in many cases have run-up ahead of the fundamentals. We rather advocate Investors to play the same through stocks in where core business is available at attractive valuations.”
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Kotak Securities said that it expects the market to be rangebound trading somewhere in the 17,000-21,000 range. They are bullish on auto, banking, and technology segments and are bearish on telecom, cement, and TV broadcasting.
HDFC Securities is bullish on quite a few sectors like media, pipes and tubes, infrastructure equipment, education services, power transmission companies and fertiliser companies, Tejal said. They would like to remain cautious on FMCG, cement, standalone generation EPC companies, and some aviation stocks
Friday, January 4, 2008
How safe are the Indian skies?
On October 7, an Air India flight from Chennai to New Delhi had a narrow escape when the pilot managed to avoid a collision with a Jet Airways [Get Quote] aircraft while landing. On October 20, a Jet airways flight from Delhi to Mumbai aborted landing when the pilot spotted an international charter aircraft on the runway.
On October 23, a Mumbai-Bangalore Kingfisher flight suddenly did an about turn and veered back towards the heavens after spotting another plane at the runway. On November 16, 305 passengers on board a Singapore airlines flight said a silent prayer after the pilot did a go around after he had spotted a business jet on the runway at Mumbai airport.
And then in another bizarre incident on December 13, a dead jackal was spotted on the runway by a Jet Airways pilot. He spotted it in time not to hit it, alerted the airport authorities and the runway was closed for around half an hour.
All these examples, previously published in the country's newspapers, illustrate my point: that the Indian skies appear a lot safer than the ground. In the air, with fly-by-wire technology in place in most aircraft, the pilot can be fast asleep for certain stretches of the flight and nothing, by and large, will go amiss.
On the ground however, pilots say, you need to have your wits about you. There's no saying who may come and bang into you, when and at what speed, on the tarmac or worse, on the runway.
A former Air Traffic Controller says that he feels that the simultaneous runway operation designed by the Airport Authority of India is a disaster in the waiting. He says the decision to reduce the training hours of ATCs from 120 to 90 wasn't such a great idea either.
The practice of the junior-most ATCs being in the control tower -- often not monitored by seniors who are in area and approach (different wings of the ATC operation) -- is perhaps not the wisest of practices either. Stressed ATCs at Delhi say that while 190 ATCs are assigned to the airport, a closer examination of the log books will show that only 70-80 of these do the real job.
The rest are busy with administration, support operations and so on. With the increased flights, the control tower, they say, resembles a fish market, so any kind of stressful situation can easily be mishandled.
Compounding the problem is a free run for vehicles plying within the operational area. Many private airlines use Qualis drivers who, especially when they cross from the international to domestic terminal, drive at break-neck speeds of 80 or at times even 100 km an hour (the permissible speed is 15 km an hour). In October, an Air Deccan lady engineer was killed on the tarmac by one such vehicle.
Apron control tends to overlook this over-speeding instead of cancelling the driver's authorisation permit. Drivers have also been known to drive while speaking on their mobile phones; deputy chief minister of Bihar Sushil Modi was hurt in a near-miss on the ground, when his bus driver, despite being busy on his mobile, managed to avert crashing into a Deccan aircraft.
Birds, it appears, are a minor menace. Stray dogs, blue bulls, jackals and even peacocks have been known to surface within the operational premises. Culverts to cross drains on the side roads of the airport house families of jackals, who at the smell of the first rain express their joy by frolicking on the runway and tarmac.
When I asked a senior aviation ministry official why this kind of thing occurred so frequently and who was to blame, his reaction was interesting. He said that he, in fact, wondered why more such incidents didn't take place on a daily basis.
He said he stood on the Delhi airport tarmac for over an hour one day (his position allows him to do so) and felt that it was uncannily like the outer Ring Road in Delhi.
A Kingfisher pilot (an Indian and a friend) said that many foreign pilots in India have developed a fear of landing in India (the next time you appear to be in the air longer than you anticipated, take a walk to the cockpit to check what's really causing the delay!).
If the ministry of civil aviation, the DGCA, the Airport Authority of India and the ATCs don't collectively get their act together, he feels, India's pilot shortage could soon intensify.
Meanwhile, in this holy mess, hapless passengers and frequent fliers have little clue of the ground reality. To convince passengers that all is well, the DGCA observed and heavily advertised an air safety week from December 10-15. Maybe it's time for a ground safety week next?
On October 23, a Mumbai-Bangalore Kingfisher flight suddenly did an about turn and veered back towards the heavens after spotting another plane at the runway. On November 16, 305 passengers on board a Singapore airlines flight said a silent prayer after the pilot did a go around after he had spotted a business jet on the runway at Mumbai airport.
And then in another bizarre incident on December 13, a dead jackal was spotted on the runway by a Jet Airways pilot. He spotted it in time not to hit it, alerted the airport authorities and the runway was closed for around half an hour.
All these examples, previously published in the country's newspapers, illustrate my point: that the Indian skies appear a lot safer than the ground. In the air, with fly-by-wire technology in place in most aircraft, the pilot can be fast asleep for certain stretches of the flight and nothing, by and large, will go amiss.
On the ground however, pilots say, you need to have your wits about you. There's no saying who may come and bang into you, when and at what speed, on the tarmac or worse, on the runway.
A former Air Traffic Controller says that he feels that the simultaneous runway operation designed by the Airport Authority of India is a disaster in the waiting. He says the decision to reduce the training hours of ATCs from 120 to 90 wasn't such a great idea either.
The practice of the junior-most ATCs being in the control tower -- often not monitored by seniors who are in area and approach (different wings of the ATC operation) -- is perhaps not the wisest of practices either. Stressed ATCs at Delhi say that while 190 ATCs are assigned to the airport, a closer examination of the log books will show that only 70-80 of these do the real job.
The rest are busy with administration, support operations and so on. With the increased flights, the control tower, they say, resembles a fish market, so any kind of stressful situation can easily be mishandled.
Compounding the problem is a free run for vehicles plying within the operational area. Many private airlines use Qualis drivers who, especially when they cross from the international to domestic terminal, drive at break-neck speeds of 80 or at times even 100 km an hour (the permissible speed is 15 km an hour). In October, an Air Deccan lady engineer was killed on the tarmac by one such vehicle.
Apron control tends to overlook this over-speeding instead of cancelling the driver's authorisation permit. Drivers have also been known to drive while speaking on their mobile phones; deputy chief minister of Bihar Sushil Modi was hurt in a near-miss on the ground, when his bus driver, despite being busy on his mobile, managed to avert crashing into a Deccan aircraft.
Birds, it appears, are a minor menace. Stray dogs, blue bulls, jackals and even peacocks have been known to surface within the operational premises. Culverts to cross drains on the side roads of the airport house families of jackals, who at the smell of the first rain express their joy by frolicking on the runway and tarmac.
When I asked a senior aviation ministry official why this kind of thing occurred so frequently and who was to blame, his reaction was interesting. He said that he, in fact, wondered why more such incidents didn't take place on a daily basis.
He said he stood on the Delhi airport tarmac for over an hour one day (his position allows him to do so) and felt that it was uncannily like the outer Ring Road in Delhi.
A Kingfisher pilot (an Indian and a friend) said that many foreign pilots in India have developed a fear of landing in India (the next time you appear to be in the air longer than you anticipated, take a walk to the cockpit to check what's really causing the delay!).
If the ministry of civil aviation, the DGCA, the Airport Authority of India and the ATCs don't collectively get their act together, he feels, India's pilot shortage could soon intensify.
Meanwhile, in this holy mess, hapless passengers and frequent fliers have little clue of the ground reality. To convince passengers that all is well, the DGCA observed and heavily advertised an air safety week from December 10-15. Maybe it's time for a ground safety week next?
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